Weekend Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR, JOY …

Weekend Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR, JOY RIDE, and SOUND OF FREEDOM Debut as INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY Looks to Repeat at #1

July 05, 2023

After a long holiday weekend that saw moviegoers turn out for a five-day frame-including Independence Day on Tuesday-studios are taking a brief reprieve from releasing major films this weekend. That said, three counter-programmers could provide some added business to the midsummer market, with under-served genre representation from the horror, comedy, and faith-based indie fields hitting the big screen.

Insidious: The Red Door

Sony Pictures / Screen Gems

Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$27M

PROS: As outlined in a prior analysis, the Insidious franchise enjoyed a rebound with 2018’s The Last Key; The Red Door could ride that wave of momentum, especially given the return of original cast members Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne, Lin Shaye, and Ty Simpkins. Pre-sales have been trending in the neighborhood of recent summer thriller/horror releases like The Black Phone and Candyman, while outpacing The Boogeyman by a factor of more than three. With very few high-profile horror offerings so far this summer, this sequel could stand out among genre fans and the franchise’s own dedicated following.

CONS: Coming off a crowded holiday frame could prove a challenge for The Red Door, as could the upcoming releases of several other tentpoles in July. The film will also have little premium screen footprint, as Indiana Jones continues to command those auditoriums. Pre-sales were sluggish out of the gate, though that’s largely attributable to the combination of holiday activities being on the forefront of moviegoers’ minds and horror’s history of lighting a late fuse in ticket purchases.

Joy Ride

Lionsgate

Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$11M

PROS: In a similar vein to this summer’s relative lack of big screen horror options, comedy films-outside of No Hard Feelings-has been a missing piece to the season’s box office puzzle. The glut of male-driven films in theaters in July, with the obvious exception of Barbie, could allow Joy Ride some space to stretch its legs. Critics’ reviews have signaled a potential crowd-pleaser; Joy Ride’s Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96 percent from 45 entries as of Wednesday morning.

CONS: As No Hard Feelings recently proved, it can be challenging for R-rated comedy to exceed expectations at the box office-with or without star power. Joy Ride likewise has to consider the gauntlet of competition ahead in July, notably Barbie, with which it shares a female target audience.

Sound of Freedom

Angel Studios

6-Day Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$28M

PROS: Faith-based films have seen an occasional resurgence in recent years, in particular those from Angel Studios (His Only Son, “The Chosen”). Pre-sales for this Jim Caviezel-led thriller have impressed thanks to the strong grassroots campaign mounted by the studio.

CONS: Reliance on faith-driven audiences can sometimes create films to be frontloaded. The holiday release of Sound of Freedom is another factor, as it may make daily holds going into the traditional weekend difficult to predict.

Editorial and Analysis

The weekend box office forecast for July 7, 2023, brings a mix of counter-programming films to the table. While the blockbuster sequel Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is expected to remain at the top spot, films like Insidious: The Red Door, Joy Ride, and Sound of Freedom offer alternative options for moviegoers.

Insidious: The Red Door, as part of the successful Insidious franchise, has the potential to attract genre fans with its familiar cast and a loyal following. Although opening after a crowded holiday frame, the lack of high-profile horror offerings this summer may work in its favor. However, its performance could be impacted by other tentpole releases in July and the dominance of Indiana Jones for premium screens.

Joy Ride, a comedy film, fills a gap in the summer box office. With a positive critical reception and a potential to appeal to a wide audience, Joy Ride could find success even in the midst of male-driven films. However, it faces competition from Barbie, which targets a similar audience.

Sound of Freedom, a faith-based thriller led by Jim Caviezel, has seen impressive pre-sales due to a strong grassroots campaign by Angel Studios. While faith-based films have occasionally performed well, they often have frontloaded audiences and face challenges in predicting daily holds due to holiday release schedules.

Overall, the weekend forecast suggests a potential decrease of 15% to 20% from the previous weekend’s top ten aggregate. With a mix of genres and audience demographics, there are options for moviegoers seeking different cinematic experiences.

As always, these forecasts are subject to revision and finalization as more data becomes available, including studio reports and official sources. The box office remains unpredictable, and audience preferences can fluctuate. It will be interesting to see how each film performs and if any surprises arise.

Advice for Moviegoers

For horror enthusiasts, Insidious: The Red Door offers a chance to delve into the supernatural world of the Insidious franchise. With familiar cast members returning, fans can expect a thrilling experience.

Those in search of a good laugh may find Joy Ride to be a crowd-pleaser. With positive reviews and a score of 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, the film promises to deliver plenty of comedic moments.

For those interested in faith-based films, Sound of Freedom provides a gripping thriller led by Jim Caviezel. This film explores themes of faith and redemption, offering an alternative cinematic experience.

Ultimately, the choice of which film to watch depends on individual preferences. Whether it’s horror, comedy, or faith-based storytelling, the weekend box office has something for everyone.