Club-by-club Analysis: Predicting Each Team’s Top Brownlow Contenders

Club-by-Club Guide: Every Team’s Best Brownlow Chance

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Introduction

The Brownlow Medal, widely regarded as the highest individual honor in Australian Rules Football, is set to be awarded this Monday night. As anticipation builds, AFL.com.au takes a deep dive into the chances of players from all 18 AFL clubs. In this comprehensive club-by-club guide, we evaluate each team’s best chance of bringing home the prestigious ‘Charlie’ and provide predictions based on the Brownlow Predictor and Sportsbet odds.

Adelaide Crows

Best Chance: Jordan Dawson

Jordan Dawson, the Adelaide captain, had a career-best season after making the move into the midfield. He was prolific on the field and showcased his scoring ability in the forward half. Dawson is predicted to poll in six of his team’s first nine games, putting him in contention at the halfway point of the campaign. However, his chances could be hampered if he experiences a quieter end to the season.

One-Vote Wonder: Mitch Hinge (Round 21 v Gold Coast)

Keep an eye out for Adelaide defender Mitch Hinge, who may secure his first career Brownlow votes for an outstanding performance late in the year against Gold Coast. Hinge’s 31 disposals, 14 intercept possessions, and 451 meters gained in that game make it a strong contender for recognition.

Brownlow Predictor: 25 – Jordan Dawson, 16 – Rory Laird, 12 – Taylor Walker

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Jordan Dawson, $7 – Rory Laird, $10 – Taylor Walker

Predicted Team Votes: 79

2022 Most Votes: Taylor Walker (14 votes)

Ineligible: Shane McAdam, Luke Pedlar, Josh Rachele

Previous Winners: Mark Ricciuto (2003)

Brisbane Lions

Best Chance: Lachie Neale

Lachie Neale, the 2020 Brownlow Medal winner, is a proven vote-getter and will once again be among the leading contenders. Neale has polled over 25 votes in three of his last four seasons and was the Brisbane Lions’ best ball-winner this year. Expect him to feature heavily in the votes throughout the Lions’ 17 victories.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Payne (Round 8 v Carlton)

Brisbane defender Jack Payne may secure his first career Brownlow votes for his brilliant performance against Carlton. Not only did he keep Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow to just one goal, but he also made an impact in the offensive end with 13 disposals, eight intercept possessions, and five intercept marks.

Brownlow Predictor: 32 – Lachie Neale, 10 – Charlie Cameron, 8 – Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Lachie Neale, $26 – Josh Dunkley, $41 – Joe Daniher

Predicted Team Votes: 90

2022 Most Votes: Lachie Neale (28 votes)

Ineligible: Dayne Zorko, Lincoln McCarthy

Previous Winners: Haydn Bunton snr (1931, 1932, 1935), Wilfred Smallhorn (1933), Denis Ryan (1936), Allan Ruthven (1950), Kevin Murray (1969), Bernie Quinlan (1981), Michael Voss (1996), Jason Akermanis (2001), Simon Black (2002), Lachie Neale (2020)

Carlton Blues

Best Chance: Charlie Curnow

Back-to-back Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow is likely to vie with his captain and reigning Brownlow Medal winner Patrick Cripps as Carlton’s best chance. With a career-high 78 goals this season, including several games with five or more majors, Curnow is expected to feature heavily in the votes during his standout performances.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Silvagni (Round 18 v Port Adelaide)

Versatile Carlton forward Jack Silvagni, playing as a makeshift ruck, impressed against Port Adelaide and could receive his first Brownlow votes. Silvagni kicked four goals, had 19 disposals, five marks, 11 score involvements, and 10 hitouts in an exceptional performance.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Patrick Cripps, 17 – Charlie Curnow, 11 – Adam Cerra

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.85 – Charlie Curnow, $2.10 – Patrick Cripps, $10 – Adam Cerra

Predicted Team Votes: 71

2022 Most Votes: Patrick Cripps (29 votes)

Ineligible: Blake Acres, Jesse Motlop, Matt Cottrell, Jordan Boyd

Previous Winners: Bert Deacon (1947), John James (1961), Gordon Collis (1964), Greg Williams (1994), Chris Judd (2010), Patrick Cripps (2022)

Collingwood Magpies

Best Chance: Nick Daicos

Second-year midfielder Nick Daicos could emerge as the runaway leader by Round 18. The question then revolves around whether he can hold on to the top spot. Unfortunately, a knee injury ruled him out of the last three matches, potentially hampering his chances. Nevertheless, Daicos is expected to be among the Brownlow favorites for years to come.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Ginnivan (Round 24 v Essendon)

Fan-favorite Jack Ginnivan, despite starting only eight games in a frustrating season, made an impact in the final round. With three goals and three goal assists from 17 disposals against Essendon, Ginnivan could be in line for Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 30 – Nick Daicos, 15 – Jordan De Goey*, 11 – Josh Daicos

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.005 Nick Daicos, $34 Jordan De Goey, $51 Tom Mitchell

Predicted Team Votes: 91

2022 Most Votes: Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos (11 votes)

Ineligible: Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey, Beau McCreery

Previous Winners: Syd Coventry (1927), Albert Collier (1929), Harry Collier (1930), Marcus Whelan (1939), Des Fothergill (1940), Len Thompson (1972), Peter Moore (1979), Nathan Buckley (2003), Dane Swan (2011)

Essendon Bombers

Best Chance: Darcy Parish

Darcy Parish is likely to score the most votes for Essendon, but he is ineligible due to suspension. This makes Andrew Brayshaw the team’s leading contender. Despite a calf injury ruling him out for five matches, Brayshaw’s prolific ball-winning abilities and consistent performance when on the field make him a strong candidate for a significant number of votes.

One-Vote Wonder: Archie Perkins (Round 1 v Hawthorn)

Expect young Essendon midfielder Archie Perkins to receive rare Brownlow votes for his impactful performance in a Round 1 win over Hawthorn. With three goals, two goal assists, and multiple other contributions, Perkins’ performance deserves recognition.

Brownlow Predictor: 20 – Zach Merrett*, 15 – Darcy Parish, 9 – Nic Martin

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Zach Merrett, $7 – Darcy Parish, $15 – Nic Martin

Predicted Team Votes: 64

2022 Most Votes: Zach Merrett (17 votes)

Ineligible: Zach Merrett, Sam Durham, Andrew Phillips

Previous Winners: Dick Reynolds (1934, 1937, 1938), Bill Hutchison (1952, 1953), Graham Moss (1976), Gavin Wanganeen (1993), James Hird (1996)

Fremantle Dockers

Best Chance: Andrew Brayshaw

With Caleb Serong ineligible due to suspension, Andrew Brayshaw is likely the Fremantle Dockers’ best chance. He proved to be a vote-winner last season with 25 votes, and his strong finish to the campaign suggests he will feature prominently in the votes during the team’s 10 victories.

One-Vote Wonder: Sam Switkowski (Round 3 v West Coast)

Fremantle forward Sam Switkowski, who has only one career Brownlow vote, put on a memorable performance against West Coast. With 21 disposals, two goals, 10 score involvements, and six tackles in a Derby win, Switkowski is a strong contender for votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 23 – Caleb Serong*, 15 – Andrew Brayshaw, 12 – Luke Jackson

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Caleb Serong, $6 – Andrew Brayshaw, $18 – Luke Jackson

Predicted Team Votes: 66

2022 Most Votes: Andrew Brayshaw (25 votes)

Ineligible: Matt Johnson, Jaeger O’Meara, Caleb Serong

Previous Winners: Nat Fyfe (2015, 2019)

Geelong Cats

Best Chance: Jeremy Cameron

A hot start to the season should put Geelong forward Jeremy Cameron among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. With 33 goals from the team’s first eight games, Cameron is expected to feature prominently in the votes during that period. Despite a quieter second half of the season, he should still lead the Cats for votes, as he did last year.

One-Vote Wonder: Gary Rohan (Round 15 v Melbourne)

Gary Rohan was critical in Geelong’s big win over Melbourne. He kicked three goals, had 16 disposals, nine score involvements, and two goal assists, making him a strong candidate for his first career Brownlow Medal votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 14 – Jeremy Cameron, 11 – Tom Stewart, 9 – Patrick Dangerfield

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.500 – Jeremy Cameron, $5.50 – Patrick Dangerfield, $5.50 – Tom Stewart

Predicted Team Votes: 60

2022 Most Votes: Jeremy Cameron (19 votes)

Ineligible: Gary Rohan, Brad Close, Mitch Duncan

Previous Winners: Edward Greeves jnr (1924), Bernie Smith (1951), Alistair Lord (1962), Paul Couch (1989), Jimmy Bartel (2007), Gary Ablett jnr (2009), Patrick Dangerfield (2016)

Gold Coast Suns

Best Chance: Noah Anderson

Despite the absence of skipper Touk Miller for 10 weeks due to injury, Gold Coast midfielder Noah Anderson shone throughout the season. Anderson’s standout performance in the absence of Miller should be rewarded on Brownlow night, as his prolific ball-winning and scoring ability caught the eye.

One-Vote Wonder: Rory Atkins (Round 18 v St Kilda)

In caretaker coach Steven King’s first game in charge, Rory Atkins made a significant impact. With 32 disposals, two goals, and 716 meters gained, Atkins demonstrated his prowess in one of his best games of the year, making him a strong contender for rare Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Noah Anderson, 12 – Matt Rowell, 7 – Jack Lukosius

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Noah Anderson, $7 – Matt Rowell, $26 – Jack Lukosius

Predicted Team Votes: 62

2022 Most Votes: Touk Miller (27 votes)

Ineligible: Nil

Previous Winners: Gary Ablett jnr (2013)

GWS Giants

Best Chance: Toby Greene

GWS Giants captain Toby Greene enjoyed a career-best year, kicking 60 goals for the first time while also making a significant impact in other areas of the game. With Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly also performing strongly, Greene is the team’s leading contender. Notably, Tom Green is ineligible for the Brownlow Medal.

One-Vote Wonder: Jake Riccardi (Round 14 v Fremantle)

Jake Riccardi, who was dropped earlier in the season, found form and kicked five goals against Fremantle. His 15 disposals, eight marks, and 10 score involvements make a compelling case for his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 21 – Tom Green*, 16 – Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, 10 – Josh Kelly

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.52 – Toby Greene, $4 – Tom Green, $7 – Stephen Coniglio

Predicted Team Votes: 73

2022 Most Votes: Josh Kelly (13 votes)

Ineligible: Tom Green, Callan Ward, Lachie Whitfield, Nick Haynes, Toby Bedford, Brent Daniels

Previous Winners: Nil

Hawthorn Hawks

Best Chance: Jai Newcombe

With captain James Sicily suspended, Jai Newcombe is expected to be the leading contender for the Hawthorn Hawks. Newcombe had a breakout year, showcasing his clearance and contested work skills. Look for him to poll well in the Hawks’ seven victories and vie with Sicily as the team’s top vote-getter.

One-Vote Wonder: Connor Macdonald (Round 13 v Brisbane)

Connor Macdonald’s excellent performance against Brisbane makes him a strong candidate for his first career Brownlow votes. With 28 disposals, two goals, 12 score involvements, and three goal assists, Macdonald impressed in his best game of the year.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Jai Newcombe, 14 – James Sicily*, 8 – Will Day

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.70 – James Sicily, $2.25 – Jai Newcombe, $26 – Will Day

Predicted Team Votes: 55

2022 Most Votes: Jai Newcombe (11 votes)

Ineligible: Will Day, Tyler Brockman, James Sicily, Ned Reeves

Previous Winners: Col Austen (1949), Robert DiPierdomenico (1986), John Platten (1987), Shane Crawford (1999), Sam Mitchell (2012), Tom Mitchell (2018)

Melbourne Demons

Best Chance: Christian Petracca

Christian Petracca, the prolific Melbourne midfielder, combined his ball-winning ability with significant impact in the forward half. He has polled 20 or more votes in each of the past three seasons and should receive more votes during Clayton Oliver’s absence due to injury. Petracca is expected to be among the leading contenders.

One-Vote Wonder: Kade Chandler (Round 7 v North Melbourne)

Kade Chandler, the small forward for Melbourne, made a significant impact in a dominant win against North Melbourne. With three goals, 21 disposals, and eight marks, Chandler could receive his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 25 – Christian Petracca, 19 – Jack Viney, 14 – Clayton Oliver

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Christian Petracca, $26 – Jack Viney, $41 – Clayton Oliver

Predicted Team Votes: 92

2022 Most Votes: Clayton Oliver (25 votes)

Ineligible: Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Lachie Hunter, James Harmes

Previous Winners: Ivor Warne-Smith (1926, 1928), Don Cordner (1946), Brian Wilson (1982), Peter Moore (1984), Jim Stynes (1991), Shane Woewodin (2000)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Best Chance: Luke Davies-Uniacke

Despite a challenging season for North Melbourne, Luke Davies-Uniacke provided some rare highlights. With over 30 disposals in both of the team’s first two victories, Davies-Uniacke is likely to have a good head start over his teammates when it comes to securing votes. Key forward Nick Larkey, who kicked 71 goals for the season, could also poll well.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Ziebell (Round 8 v St Kilda)

Retiring North Melbourne favorite Jack Ziebell could add a few more votes to his impressive tally of 56 career Brownlow votes. Ziebell’s outstanding performance against St Kilda, which included 36 disposals, 18 marks, and 469 meters gained, could see him recognized on Monday night.

Brownlow Predictor: 10 – Luke Davies-Uniacke, 9 – Nick Larkey, 7 – Harry Sheezel

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.08 – Luke Davies-Uniacke, $10 – Nick Larkey, $12 – Harry Sheezel

Predicted Team Votes: 34

2022 Most Votes: Luke Davies-Uniacke (8 votes)

Ineligible: Jy Simpkin, Griffin Logue, Aidan Corr

Previous Winners: Noel Teasdale (1965), Keith Greig (1973, 1974), Malcolm Blight (1978), Ross Glendinning (1983)

Port Adelaide Power

Best Chance: Zak Butters

Zak Butters, after a sublime patch midway through the season, could emerge as a genuine contender for the Brownlow Medal. Butters is predicted to poll in eight consecutive games at one point, giving him a significant advantage over teammate Connor Rozee. However, Butters’ lack of previous high vote counts may require him to catch the eye early in the season to have a chance.

One-Vote Wonder: Willem Drew (Round 6 v West Coast)

Willem Drew, the hard-nosed midfielder for Port Adelaide, could be set for his first Brownlow votes for his impressive performance against West Coast. With 25 disposals, a goal, six clearances, 10 tackles, and eight score involvements, Drew’s impact on the game is undeniable.

Brownlow Predictor: 29 – Zak Butters, 24 – Connor Rozee, 9 – Dan Houston

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Zak Butters, $7 – Connor Rozee, $34 – Jason Horne-Francis

Predicted Team Votes: 94

2022 Most Votes: Karl Amon (15 votes)

Ineligible: Ryan Burton, Tom Jonas, Willie Rioli

Previous Winners: Ollie Wines (2021)

Richmond Tigers

Best Chance: Tim Taranto

Tim Taranto had an outstanding first season at Richmond, making him one of the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. Taranto is predicted to poll in eight consecutive games during the middle of the campaign. However, there are question marks about whether he did enough in other games to be a top contender.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Riewoldt (Round 12 v GWS Giants)

Retiring Richmond premiership star Jack Riewoldt, with 62 career Brownlow votes, could potentially add a couple more to his tally. Riewoldt’s five goals, 15 disposals, eight marks, and 10 score involvements against GWS Giants make it a strong performance deserving of recognition.

Brownlow Predictor: 27 – Tim Taranto, 11 – Shai Bolton, 8 – Dustin Martin

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.05 Tim Taranto, $15 Dustin Martin, $15 Shai Bolton

Predicted Team Votes: 61

2022 Most Votes: Dion Prestia (19 votes)

Ineligible: Nathan Broad, Rhyan Mansell, Toby Nankervis

Previous Winners: Nil

St Kilda Saints

Best Chance: Jack Sinclair

Jack Sinclair, after a prolific season, is likely to be the leading vote-getter for the St Kilda Saints. Sinclair’s consistency and standout performances in the team’s 13 victories make him a strong contender for significant votes. Captain Jack Steele and in-form onballer Brad Crouch could also poll well.

One-Vote Wonder: Mitch Owens (Round 4 v Gold Coast)

Mitch Owens, a young star for St Kilda, made a significant impact against Gold Coast. With 27 disposals, two goals, and 716 meters gained, Owens’ performance deserves recognition and potential Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 24 – Jack Sinclair, 12 – Brad Crouch, 10 – Jack Steele

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.35 – Jack Sinclair, $4.50 – Rowan Marshall, $10 – Brad Crouch

Predicted Team Votes: 72

2022 Most Votes: Jack Steele (13 votes)

Ineligible: Anthony Caminiti

Previous Winners: Colin Watson (1925), Brian Gleeson (1957), Neil Roberts (1958), Verdun Howell (1959), Ian Stewart (1965, 1966), Ross Smith (1967), Tony Lockett (1987), Robert Harvey (1997, 1998)

Sydney Swans

Best Chance: Errol Gulden

Errol Gulden, the breakout star for the Sydney Swans, enjoyed a remarkable season. With a strong finish to the campaign, Gulden has an outside chance of claiming the Brownlow Medal. His ability to win the ball and make an impact on the scoreboard make him a strong candidate for a significant number of votes.

One-Vote Wonder: Logan McDonald (Round 2 v Hawthorn)

Logan McDonald, the exciting young forward for Sydney, kicked five goals against Hawthorn, making it a performance worthy of his first career Brownlow votes. McDonald’s impact on the game was crucial in securing the win for the Swans.

Brownlow Predictor: 22 – Errol Gulden, 13 – Chad Warner, 10 – Luke Parker*

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Errol Gulden, $8 – Chad Warner, $21 – Luke Parker

Predicted Team Votes: 74

2022 Most Votes: Callum Mills (21 votes)

Ineligible: Lance Franklin, Luke Parker, Sam Wicks, Braeden Campbell

Previous Winners: Herbie Matthews (1940), Ron Clegg (1949), Fred Goldsmith (1955), Bob Skilton (1959, 1963, 1968), Peter Bedford (1970), Graham Teasdale (1977), Barry Round (1981), Greg Williams (1986), Gerard Healy (1988), Paul Kelly (1995), Adam Goodes (2003, 2006)

West Coast Eagles

Best Chance: Tim Kelly

While it may have been a forgettable season for the West Coast Eagles as a team, Tim Kelly enjoyed his best campaign in Eagles colors. As a rare shining light, Kelly was consistently impressive, averaging 30 disposals in the team’s three victories. With few teammates likely to take votes off him, Kelly is the team’s leading contender.

One-Vote Wonder: Jake Waterman (Round 2 v GWS Giants)

Votes may be scarce for West Coast players, but forward Jake Waterman could potentially receive recognition. His performance against the Giants, with four goals, 16 disposals, eight marks, nine score involvements, and eight hitouts, makes him a contender for his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 14 – Tim Kelly, 4 – Dom Sheed, 2 – Jamaine Jones, Luke Shuey

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Tim Kelly, $41 – Luke Shuey, $41 – Oscar Allen

Predicted Team Votes: 24

2022 Most Votes: Josh Kennedy (6 votes)

Ineligible: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Liam Duggan, Elliot Yeo

Previous Winners: Chris Judd (2004), Ben Cousins (2005), Matt Priddis (2014)

Western Bulldogs

Best Chance: Marcus Bontempelli

Marcus Bontempelli, the Western Bulldogs captain, enhanced his credentials as the game’s best clearance player this season. With a standout year, combined with fewer teammates taking votes from him, Bontempelli is well and truly among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. Expect him to feature at the top end towards the latter part of the night.

One-Vote Wonder: Ed Richards (Round 9 v Carlton)

Ed Richards, with 25 disposals, 10 marks, 10 intercept possessions, six score involvements, and four intercept marks against Carlton, could potentially secure his first career Brownlow votes in recognition of his outstanding performance.

Brownlow Predictor: 28 – Marcus Bontempelli, 15 – Tom Liberatore, 6 – Tim English

Sportsbet Most Team Votes: $1.005 – Marcus Bontempelli, $26 – Tom Liberatore, $41 – Adam Treloar

Predicted Team Votes: 80

2022 Most Votes: Josh Dunkley (14 votes)

Ineligible: Taylor Duryea

Previous Winners: Allan Hopkins (1930), Norman Ware (1941), Peter Box (1956), John Schulz (1960), Gary Dempsey (1975), Kevin Templeton (1980), Brad Hardie (1985), Tony Liberatore (1990), Scott Wynd (1992), Adam Cooney (2008)

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