The Brownlow Medal Race: Assessing Every Club’s Top Three Contenders

Club-by-club guide: Every team’s best Brownlow chance, top three

BEST CHANCE: Jordan Dawson (Adelaide)

Jordan Dawson, the Adelaide captain, had a career-best season after moving into the midfield. He showcased his ability to find plenty of the ball and make an impact in the forward half. Dawson is predicted to receive votes in six of the team’s first nine games, positioning him as a strong contender at the halfway point of the campaign. However, a quieter end to the season could hinder his chances if he doesn’t maintain his early form.

One-Vote Wonder: Mitch Hinge (Round 21 v Gold Coast)

Mitch Hinge, the Adelaide defender, could potentially receive his first career Brownlow votes for his outstanding performance against Gold Coast. Hinge accumulated 31 disposals, 14 intercept possessions, and 451 meters gained, making it a high point in his season.

Brownlow Predictor: 25 – Jordan Dawson, 16 – Rory Laird, 12 – Taylor Walker

Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Jordan Dawson, $7 – Rory Laird, $10 – Taylor Walker

Predicted Team Votes: 79 votes

2022 Most Votes: Taylor Walker (14 votes)

Ineligible: Shane McAdam, Luke Pedlar, Josh Rachele

Previous Winners: Mark Ricciuto (2003)

BEST CHANCE: Lachie Neale (Brisbane)

Lachie Neale, the Brisbane ball-magnet and 2020 Brownlow Medal winner, is a proven vote-getter and will be among the leading contenders this season. He has received more than 25 votes in three of his last four seasons and was the team’s best ball-winner this year. Neale is expected to feature prominently in the votes throughout the Lions’ 17 wins.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Payne (Round 8 v Carlton)

Jack Payne, the Brisbane defender, kept Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow to just one goal while also making a significant offensive impact. He accumulated 13 disposals, eight intercept possessions, and five intercept marks, which could potentially earn him his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 32 – Lachie Neale, 10 – Charlie Cameron, 8 – Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley

Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Lachie Neale, $26 – Josh Dunkley, $41 – Joe Daniher

Predicted Team Votes: 90 votes

2022 Most Votes: Lachie Neale (28 votes)

Ineligible: Dayne Zorko, Lincoln McCarthy

Previous Winners: Haydn Bunton snr (1931, 1932, 1935), Wilfred Smallhorn (1933), Denis Ryan (1936), Allan Ruthven (1950), Kevin Murray (1969), Bernie Quinlan (1981), Michael Voss (1996), Jason Akermanis (2001), Simon Black (2002), Lachie Neale (2020)

BEST CHANCE: Charlie Curnow (Carlton)

Charlie Curnow, the back-to-back Coleman Medal winner, is likely to contend with his captain and reigning Brownlow Medal winner Patrick Cripps as Carlton’s best chance. Curnow kicked a career-high 78 goals this season, including six games with five or more majors, showcasing his ability to impact games significantly. He is expected to be heavily featured in the votes throughout those performances, potentially propelling him to the top.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Silvagni (Round 18 v Port Adelaide)

Jack Silvagni, the versatile Carlton forward, had an exceptional performance against Port Adelaide, playing as a makeshift ruck. He kicked four goals and had 19 disposals, five marks, 11 score involvements, and 10 hitouts. Silvagni could be rewarded with his first career Brownlow votes for this outstanding display.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Patrick Cripps, 17 – Charlie Curnow, 11 – Adam Cerra

Most Team Votes: $1.85 – Charlie Curnow, $2.10 – Patrick Cripps, $10 – Adam Cerra

Predicted Team Votes: 71 votes

2022 Most Votes: Patrick Cripps (29 votes)

Ineligible: Blake Acres, Jesse Motlop, Matt Cottrell, Jordan Boyd

Previous Winners: Bert Deacon (1947), John James (1961), Gordon Collis (1964), Greg Williams (1994), Chris Judd (2010), Patrick Cripps (2022)

BEST CHANCE: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)

Nick Daicos, the second-year midfielder, could potentially emerge as the runaway leader by round 18. The question then becomes whether he can maintain his position. Unfortunately, a knee injury ruled him out of the season’s last three matches, which could impact his chances. Nevertheless, Daicos will be among the Brownlow favorites for years to come.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Ginnivan (Round 24 v Essendon)

Jack Ginnivan, the Collingwood fan-favorite, had a frustrating season with only eight starts. However, he made an impact in the final round by kicking three goals and providing three goal assists from 17 disposals. This performance puts him in line for potential votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 30 – Nick Daicos, 15 – Jordan De Goey*, 11 – Josh Daicos

Most Team Votes: $1.005 – Nick Daicos, $34 – Jordan De Goey, $51 – Tom Mitchell

Predicted Team Votes: 91 votes

2022 Most Votes: Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos (11 votes)

Ineligible: Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey, Beau McCreery

Previous Winners: Syd Coventry (1927), Albert Collier (1929), Harry Collier (1930), Marcus Whelan (1939), Des Fothergill (1940), Len Thompson (1972), Peter Moore (1979), Nathan Buckley (2003), Dane Swan (2011)

BEST CHANCE: Darcy Parish (Essendon)

Darcy Parish is likely to receive Essendon’s most votes, but he is ineligible due to suspension. This puts forward Andrew Brayshaw as the team’s leading contender. Despite a calf injury ruling him out for five matches, Brayshaw displayed consistent performance when on the field. His prolific ball-winning abilities are expected to secure him a significant number of votes.

One-Vote Wonder: Archie Perkins (Round 1 v Hawthorn)

Archie Perkins had a strong start to the year for Essendon, kicking three goals, providing two goal assists, and having 10 score involvements from 20 disposals in a round one win over Hawthorn. This impressive performance could earn him rare Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 20 – Zach Merrett*, 15 – Darcy Parish, 9 – Nic Martin

Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Zach Merrett, $7 – Darcy Parish, $15 – Nic Martin

Predicted Team Votes: 64 votes

2022 Most Votes: Zach Merrett (17 votes)

Ineligible: Zach Merrett, Sam Durham, Andrew Phillips

Previous Winners: Dick Reynolds (1934, 1937, 1938), Bill Hutchison (1952, 1953), Graham Moss (1976), Gavin Wanganeen (1993), James Hird (1996)

BEST CHANCE: Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)

With Caleb Serong ineligible due to suspension, Andrew Brayshaw is likely Fremantle’s best chance for the Brownlow Medal. Brayshaw has proven to be a vote-getter, accumulating 25 votes last season, and finished the campaign strongly. Despite a disappointing season for the team, Brayshaw is expected to be featured prominently in the votes during Fremantle’s 10 wins.

One-Vote Wonder: Sam Switkowski (Round 3 v West Coast)

Sam Switkowski, the Fremantle forward, has only received one career Brownlow vote, but his performance against West Coast could earn him more. He finished with 21 disposals, two goals, 10 score involvements, and six tackles in a Derby win, making him a potential vote recipient.

Brownlow Predictor: 23 – Caleb Serong*, 15 – Andrew Brayshaw, 12 – Luke Jackson

Most Team Votes: $1.15 – Caleb Serong, $6 – Andrew Brayshaw, $18 – Luke Jackson

Predicted Team Votes: 66 votes

2022 Most Votes: Andrew Brayshaw (25 votes)

Ineligible: Matt Johnson, Jaeger O’Meara, Caleb Serong

Previous Winners: Nat Fyfe (2015, 2019)

BEST CHANCE: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

Jeremy Cameron, the Geelong forward, is expected to be among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. He had a strong start to the season, kicking 33 goals in the team’s first eight games and is likely to feature prominently in the votes during that period. Although Cameron had a quieter second half of the season, he is still expected to lead Geelong in votes, as he did last year.

One-Vote Wonder: Gary Rohan (Round 15 v Melbourne)

Gary Rohan was crucial in Geelong’s win over Melbourne. He kicked three goals, had 16 disposals, nine score involvements, and two goal assists. Rohan’s performance could potentially earn him more Brownlow Medal votes, adding to his career total of eight.

Brownlow Predictor: 14 – Jeremy Cameron, 11 – Tom Stewart, 9 – Patrick Dangerfield

Most Team Votes: $1.50 – Jeremy Cameron, $5.50 – Patrick Dangerfield, $5.50 – Tom Stewart

Predicted Team Votes: 60 votes

2022 Most Votes: Jeremy Cameron (19 votes)

Ineligible: Gary Rohan, Brad Close, Mitch Duncan

Previous Winners: Edward Greeves jnr (1924), Bernie Smith (1951), Alistair Lord (1962), Paul Couch (1989), Jimmy Bartel (2007), Gary Ablett jnr (2009), Patrick Dangerfield (2016)

BEST CHANCE: Noah Anderson (Gold Coast)

Noah Anderson, the Gold Coast midfielder, had a breakout season, shining in the absence of skipper Touk Miller during a ten-week injury absence. Although Matt Rowell also impressed during that period, Anderson stood out as the team’s standout performer. His prolific ball-winning abilities are likely to be recognized with a significant number of votes on Brownlow night.

One-Vote Wonder: Rory Atkins (Round 18 v St Kilda)

Rory Atkins had his best game of the year in caretaker coach Steven King’s first game in charge. He accumulated 32 disposals, two goals, and 716 meters gained, complementing his performance with seven score involvements and seven intercepts. This standout performance could earn Atkins rare Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Noah Anderson, 12 – Matt Rowell, 7 – Jack Lukosius

Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Noah Anderson, $7 – Matt Rowell, $26 – Jack Lukosius

Predicted Team Votes: 62 votes

2022 Most Votes: Touk Miller (27 votes)

Ineligible: Nil

Previous Winners: Gary Ablett jnr (2013)

BEST CHANCE: Toby Greene (GWS Giants)

Toby Greene, the Giants skipper, enjoyed a career-best year, kicking 60 goals for the first time, while also impacting games in various other ways. Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly were also strong contributors, but expect Greene to be the team’s leading contender. He was selected as All-Australian captain for a good reason.

One-Vote Wonder: Jake Riccardi (Round 14 v Fremantle)

Jake Riccardi, the Giants forward, found form with a five-goal performance against Fremantle. He had 15 disposals, eight marks, and 10 score involvements, which could potentially reward him with his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 21 – Tom Green*, 16 – Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, 10 – Josh Kelly

Most Team Votes: $1.52 – Toby Greene, $4 – Tom Green, $7 – Stephen Coniglio

Predicted Team Votes: 73 votes

2022 Most Votes: Josh Kelly (13 votes)

Ineligible: Tom Green, Callan Ward, Lachie Whitfield, Nick Haynes, Toby Bedford, Brent Daniels

Previous Winners: Nil

BEST CHANCE: Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn)

Jai Newcombe is expected to be Hawthorn’s leading contender for the Brownlow Medal, particularly with captain James Sicily suspended. Newcombe had a breakout season, impressing with his rugged clearance work. Despite the team’s overall performance, Newcombe’s consistent performances make him a strong contender for votes.

One-Vote Wonder: Connor Macdonald (Round 13 v Brisbane)

Connor Macdonald, the young Hawthorn midfielder, stood out in the team’s game against Brisbane. He had 28 disposals, two goals, 12 score involvements, and three goal assists, making it his best game of the year. This performance could potentially earn him his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 19 – Jai Newcombe, 14 – James Sicily*, 8 – Will Day

Most Team Votes: $1.70 – James Sicily, $2.25 – Jai Newcombe, $26 – Will Day

Predicted Team Votes: 55 votes

2022 Most Votes: Jai Newcombe (11 votes)

Ineligible: Will Day, Tyler Brockman, James Sicily, Ned Reeves

Previous Winners: Col Austen (1949), Robert DiPierdomenico (1986), John Platten (1987), Shane Crawford (1999), Sam Mitchell (2012), Tom Mitchell (2018)

BEST CHANCE: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

Christian Petracca, the Melbourne midfielder, continued to combine his prolific ball-winning abilities with a significant impact in the forward half. Petracca has polled 20-plus votes in his past three seasons and will likely receive more during Clayton Oliver’s absence due to injury. Petracca is expected to be among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal.

One-Vote Wonder: Kade Chandler (Round 7 v North Melbourne)

Kade Chandler, the small forward, could potentially receive his first career Brownlow votes for his impressive performance in a dominant Demons win. He kicked three goals from 21 disposals and eight marks, while also contributing with eight score involvements.

Brownlow Predictor: 25 – Christian Petracca, 19 – Jack Viney, 14 – Clayton Oliver

Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Christian Petracca, $26 – Jack Viney, $41 – Clayton Oliver

Predicted Team Votes: 92 votes

2022 Most Votes: Clayton Oliver (25 votes)

Ineligible: Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Lachie Hunter, James Harmes

Previous Winners: Ivor Warne-Smith (1926, 1928), Don Cordner (1946), Brian Wilson (1982), Peter Moore (1984), Jim Stynes (1991), Shane Woewodin (2000)

BEST CHANCE: Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne)

Luke Davies-Uniacke provided some rare highlights in a disappointing season for North Melbourne. He had impressive performances in both of the team’s first two victories, accumulating 30-plus disposals. These performances give him a head-start in potential votes among his Kangaroos teammates. Key forward Nick Larkey, who kicked 71 goals, could also poll well.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Ziebell (Round 8 v St Kilda)

Jack Ziebell, the retired North Melbourne favorite, has accumulated 56 career Brownlow votes. His outstanding performance against St Kilda, which included 36 disposals, 18 marks, and 469 meters gained, could potentially earn him a couple more votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 10 – Luke Davies-Uniacke, 9 – Nick Larkey, 7 – Harry Sheezel

Most Team Votes: $1.08 – Luke Davies-Uniacke, $10 – Nick Larkey, $12 – Harry Sheezel

Predicted Team Votes: 34 votes

2022 Most Votes: Luke Davies-Uniacke (8 votes)

Ineligible: Jy Simpkin, Griffin Logue, Aidan Corr

Previous Winners: Noel Teasdale (1965), Keith Greig (1973, 1974), Malcolm Blight (1978), Ross Glendinning (1983)

BEST CHANCE: Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)

Zak Butters, the Port Adelaide midfielder, had a fantastic season, particularly with a sublime patch midway through the year. He is predicted to receive votes in eight consecutive games, which puts him in contention for the Brownlow Medal. However, Butters has never received more than three votes in a season, so he will need to make a strong early impression to be a serious contender.

One-Vote Wonder: Willem Drew (Round 6 v West Coast)

Willem Drew, the hard-nosed Port Adelaide midfielder, could potentially receive his first career Brownlow votes following an outstanding performance against West Coast. He accumulated 25 disposals, one goal, six clearances, 10 tackles, and eight score involvements.

Brownlow Predictor: 29 – Zak Butters, 24 – Connor Rozee, 9 – Dan Houston

Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Zak Butters, $7 – Connor Rozee, $34 – Jason Horne-Francis

Predicted Team Votes: 94 votes

2022 Most Votes: Karl Amon (15 votes)

Ineligible: Ryan Burton, Tom Jonas, Willie Rioli

Previous Winners: Ollie Wines (2021)

BEST CHANCE: Tim Taranto (Richmond)

Tim Taranto, the Richmond midfielder, had a stellar first season at the club and should be among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. He is predicted to receive votes in eight consecutive games during the campaign, but his performances outside of that period will determine his chances of claiming the top award.

One-Vote Wonder: Jack Riewoldt (Round 12 v GWS Giants)

Jack Riewoldt, the retiring Richmond premiership great, could potentially add to his career total of 62 Brownlow votes. In his best performance of the season, Riewoldt kicked five goals and had 15 disposals, eight marks, 10 score involvements, and two goal assists.

Brownlow Predictor: 27 – Tim Taranto, 11 – Shai Bolton, 8 – Dustin Martin

Most Team Votes: $1.05 Tim Taranto, $15 Dustin Martin, $15 Shai Bolton

Predicted Team Votes: 61 votes

2022 Most Votes: Dion Prestia (19 votes)

Ineligible: Nathan Broad, Rhyan Mansell, Toby Nankervis

Previous Winners: Chris Judd (2004), Ben Cousins (2005), Matt Priddis (2014)

BEST CHANCE: Jack Sinclair (St Kilda)

Jack Sinclair, the St Kilda midfielder, is likely to be the team’s leading contender for the Brownlow Medal. Sinclair had a prolific season and should receive significant votes during the team’s 13 victories throughout the campaign. Last year was the only season in which Sinclair received votes (nine), but his increased midfield time sets him up for a potential top vote-getting performance.

One-Vote Wonder: Mitch Owens (Round 4 v Gold Coast)

Mitch Owens, the star St Kilda midfielder, could potentially receive his first career Brownlow votes for his performance against Gold Coast. He accumulated 27 disposals, two goals, 19 contested possessions, seven score involvements, and seven intercepts, making it his best game of the year.

Brownlow Predictor: 24 – Jack Sinclair, 12 – Brad Crouch, 10 – Jack Steele

Most Team Votes: $1.35 – Jack Sinclair, $4.50 – Rowan Marshall, $10 – Brad Crouch

Predicted Team Votes: 72 votes

2022 Most Votes: Jack Steele (13 votes)

Ineligible: Anthony Caminiti

Previous Winners: Colin Watson (1925), Brian Gleeson (1957), Neil Roberts (1958), Verdun Howell (1959), Ian Stewart (1965, 1966), Ross Smith (1967), Tony Lockett (1987), Robert Harvey (1997, 1998)

BEST CHANCE: Errol Gulden (Sydney)

Errol Gulden, the Sydney youngster, had a breakout season with a strong finish. His ability to win the ball and hit the scoreboard is expected to catch the eye and potentially earn him a significant number of votes. Gulden’s performances during Sydney’s improved second half of the campaign should solidify his position among the contenders for the Brownlow Medal.

One-Vote Wonder: Logan McDonald (Round 2 v Hawthorn)

Logan McDonald, the exciting Sydney forward, had an outstanding performance against Hawthorn, kicking five goals from 13 disposals and five marks. It was a dominant display, making him a potential recipient of his first career Brownlow votes.

Brownlow Predictor: 22 – Errol Gulden, 13 – Chad Warner, 10 – Luke Parker*

Most Team Votes: $1.10 – Errol Gulden, $8 – Chad Warner, $21 – Luke Parker

Predicted Team Votes: 74 votes

2022 Most Votes: Callum Mills (21 votes)

Ineligible: Lance Franklin, Luke Parker, Sam Wicks, Braeden Campbell

Previous Winners: Herbie Matthews (1940), Ron Clegg (1949), Fred Goldsmith (1955), Bob Skilton (1959, 1963, 1968), Peter Bedford (1970), Graham Teasdale (1977), Barry Round (1981), Greg Williams (1986), Gerard Healy (1988), Paul Kelly (1995), Adam Goodes (2003, 2006)

BEST CHANCE: Tim Kelly (West Coast)

Tim Kelly had a standout season for West Coast, despite the team’s disappointments. Kelly’s performances were consistently strong, particularly in the team’s three victories, where he averaged 30 disposals. With fewer teammates taking votes off him, Kelly is likely to emerge as the team’s leading contender for the Brownlow Medal.

One-Vote Wonder: Jake Waterman (Round 2 v GWS Giants)

Jake Waterman, the West Coast forward, had an impressive performance against GWS Giants, potentially earning him a couple of career Brownlow votes. Waterman kicked four goals from 16 disposals, eight marks, nine score involvements, and eight hitouts.

Brownlow Predictor: 14 – Tim Kelly, 4 – Dom Sheed, 2 – Jamaine Jones, Luke Shuey

Most Team Votes: $1.01 – Tim Kelly, $41 – Luke Shuey, $41 – Oscar Allen

Predicted Team Votes: 24 votes

2022 Most Votes: Josh Kennedy (6 votes)

Ineligible: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Liam Duggan, Elliot Yeo

Previous Winners: Chris Judd (2004), Ben Cousins (2005), Matt Priddis (2014)

BEST CHANCE: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)

Marcus Bontempelli, the Western Bulldogs captain, enhanced his reputation as the game’s best clearance player during the season. He had a standout year and is expected to be among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal. With fewer teammates taking votes off him, Bontempelli is well-positioned to be a serious contender towards the latter part of the night.

One-Vote Wonder: Ed Richards (Round 9 v Carlton)

Ed Richards, the Western Bulldogs player, had a standout game against Carlton, potentially earning him his first career Brownlow votes. He accumulated 25 disposals, took 10 marks, had 10 intercept possessions, six score involvements, and four intercept marks.

Brownlow Predictor: 28 – Marcus Bontempelli, 15 – Tom Liberatore, 6 – Tim English

Most Team Votes: $1.005 – Marcus Bontempelli, $26 – Tom Liberatore, $41 – Adam Treloar

Predicted Team Votes: 80 votes

2022 Most Votes: Josh Dunkley (14 votes)

Ineligible: Taylor Duryea

Previous Winners: Allan Hopkins (1930), Norman Ware (1941), Peter Box (1956), John Schulz (1960), Gary Dempsey (1975), Kevin Templeton (1980), Brad Hardie (1985), Tony Liberatore (1990), Scott Wynd (1992), Adam Cooney (2008)

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