Cox Plate Decoded: Analyzing the Winning Chances of Each Horse in Two Minutes

Betting Cox Plate two-minute form guide: Why each horse can and can’t win

ROMANTIC WARRIOR

Why he can: Romantic Warrior is a Hong Kong superstar with an impressive record of 10 wins from 15 starts. According to reports, he is in top form and ready to give his best. J-Mac (James McDonald) is seeking back-to-back Cox Plate wins, which adds to the horse’s chances.

Why he can’t: However, Romantic Warrior’s 4th place finish in the Turnbull Stakes was below par. To have a shot at winning, he needs to significantly improve his performance. Additionally, the horse has faced travel hurdles, which might affect his chances.

ZAAKI

Why he can: Zaaki is a war horse who knows how to make his own luck and will likely be positioned near the front. With four Group 1 wins under his belt and a 4th place finish in last year’s Cox Plate, Zaaki has the experience and talent needed. Damian Lane’s presence as the jockey adds to his chances.

Why he can’t: However, Zaaki, now a nine-year-old, will need a career-best performance to win this race, which doesn’t seem highly likely. Additionally, being in the widest gate means Zaaki will have to work hard early on to get a good position.

MR BRIGHTSIDE

Why he can: Known for his toughness, Mr Brightside has already secured four Group 1 wins. With three victories out of four runs at The Valley and a favorable barrier draw, he has a good chance of performing well.

Why he can’t: However, there is a slight doubt about Mr Brightside’s performance at the strong 2040m distance. He has already had a demanding preparation, including a return trip to Sydney in his last start. The question arises whether he can peak for a career-best performance at the Cox Plate.

ALLIGATOR BLOOD

Why he can: Alligator Blood is in top form, with a special win in the Might And Power Stakes over 2000m. Known to create his own opportunities, he has seven Group 1 wins and will benefit from a soft gate in the race.

Why he can’t: However, Alligator Blood has faced disappointment in his two “grand finals” at this track, the All-Star Mile and the previous year’s Cox Plate. His inability to perform at his best in these pressure-cooker situations raises doubts about his chances.

GOLD TRIP

Why he can: Gold Trip, a Melbourne Cup winner and two-time Caulfield Cup placegetter, dominated the Turnbull Stakes. He was also a strong contender in last year’s Cox Plate, indicating his capabilities. With blinkers on, an in-form jockey, and master trainers, Gold Trip is a formidable competitor.

Why he can’t: However, Gold Trip will need to bounce back from a tough run in the Caulfield Cup, where he carried a heavy weight in a fast-run race. The challenge lies in whether he can recover quickly enough to give his best performance at the Cox Plate.

MY OBERON

Why he can: My Oberon consistently performs well and was narrowly beaten by Mr Brightside in the King Charles III Stakes in his last start. With a favorable barrier draw, he has a chance to shine.

Why he can’t: Despite his consistent form, there are doubts about My Oberon’s performance at the 2000m distance. Since coming to Australia, he has only won one race, making it unlikely that this race will be his second victory.

PINSTRIPED

Why he can: Pinstriped showcased his potential by winning the Feehan Stakes and boasts an unbeaten record at The Valley. These factors certainly increase his chances of performing well.

Why he can’t: However, the wide barrier draw makes it difficult for Pinstriped to maneuver in the race. Additionally, this will be the toughest race he has ever faced, and there are doubts about his ability to handle the 2000m distance.

FANGIRL

Why she can: Fangirl’s electrifying win in the King Charles III Stakes demonstrated her talent. With the guidance of trainer Chris Waller and jockey Zac Purton, she has a sense of timing that could work to her advantage. Fangirl is known for stalking her competitors.

Why she can’t: However, Fangirl is untested at The Valley and racing beyond 2000m. Additionally, her awkward barrier position may hinder her ability to find a good position in the race.

DUAIS

Why she can: Duais performs best at the 2000m distance, as evidenced by her three Group 1 wins. With a favorable barrier draw and Damien Oliver, this race might be a fitting finale for the jockey.

Why she can’t: Although Duais had a good run in the Might And Power Stakes, it wasn’t exceptional. Moreover, she hasn’t won a race in 19 months, which raises concerns about her ability to deliver a winning performance.

VICTORIA ROAD

Why he can: Victoria Road fits the profile of previous European three-year-old winners of the Cox Plate. With a sharp turn of foot, the guidance of jockey Blake Shinn, and a favorable barrier draw, he has a chance to shine.

Why he can’t: However, Victoria Road failed in his only start at 2000m, which raises doubts about his ability to perform well at this distance. Additionally, with only 10 starts under his belt, he lacks the experience of some other contenders.

MILITARIZE

Why he can: Militarize has three Group 1 wins to his name and displayed a strong finish in the Caulfield Guineas. With a light weight of 49.5kg and the expertise of trainer Chris Waller, he shouldn’t be underestimated.

Why he can’t: The Cox Plate will be Militarize’s first attempt at the 2000m distance, which adds a level of uncertainty. Furthermore, this will be the toughest race he has ever faced, going up against experienced horses in a high-pressure environment.

KING COLORADO

Why he can: King Colorado’s brave run in the Caulfield Guineas showcased his determination and talent. With a light weight and trainers Maher-Eustace, as well as the support of Group 1 jockey Micky Dee, he shouldn’t be disregarded.

Why he can’t: However, King Colorado faces a challenging race due to a wide gate. Out of his six starts, he has been beaten in four, indicating a struggle to perform at the highest level of the sport. The class jump in this race presents another hurdle.

Predicted Finishing Order

Based on the evaluation of each horse’s chances, the predicted finishing order is as follows:

1. Gold Trip (5)
2. Fangirl (8)
3. Alligator Blood (4)
4. Mr Brightside (3)
5. Victoria Road (10)
6. Militarize (11)
7. Romantic Warrior (1)
8. King Colorado (12)
9. Duais (9)
10. Zaaki (2)
11. My Oberon (6)
12. Pinstriped (7)

It’s important to note that racing can be unpredictable, and any outcome is possible on race day. These predictions are based on the analysis of each horse’s form and circumstances leading up to the Cox Plate.

For the latest news and updates, refer to Matt Williams’ coverage of the race.